Since the week of 10/1 it has been the biggest drop of this year in the market since February. What is interesting is people were trying to blame a single event to the drop. Nothing in this world is ever one-to-one and the market is globally connected like of all of us.
So we see confused analysts using tariffs and interest rates as the reasons for such a drop. This is hard to understand where they get their reasoning. In fact, interest rates have been rising significantly since 2015 and the market has been pushing up and up and away since that time with a drop in February only to climb higher. Historically, interest rates show when they rise markets rise.
So its hard to be bearish on this market and it appears to be a nice consolidation. But what appears to be causing some of the worry is the elections moving into November. As international investors view USA, there is some shake in confidence as they are unsure what will happen.
And what I have learned in the markets is lack of confidence causes movements in markets.
We closed today at: 25,052.83 Monday appears to be an important day. While I do not wish to speculate I do not believe the long term is as bullish as some believe. But we will have to see… November will be a important time for the markets and I can remember wishing for a drop in the beginning of 2018 in the market to re-buy.
Now we have a nice drop and NOT an isolated high this year, but it re-touch of the January high. Isolated highs appear to be more scary… but a market re-testing again to go higher and then dropping again appears to be more consolidation. Some ugly and hard to stomach consolidation… but in the market consolidation builds energy to break out in one direction.
Our new area to watch for support appears to be 24960 – 24960 for the close of 10/12. Lets see what happens with this tomorrow.
These are definitely some interesting times. So we all should enjoy the show and try to document the market moves to learn from them.
One thing good traders know… is the majority must be bearish for the market to go up.