Only a select few have an idea what the Fed will do today, so will write the data below to give myself a better understanding of possible probabilities of markets.
Update: Fed Did not raise rates.
Thoughts on Markets After Rally Monday, Tuesday… We are Mid Week:
28.01 is Resistance, watch if breaks or closes above Friday. If not we are likely to continue back down after this rally.
Daily, Wednesday middle week after rally up.
We elected daily bullish at 26.95 and risen above to 27.80 area as of mid day before the Fed meeting on interest rates. Showing strength.
27.23 – must make new high today(above prior high) and close above to rally further and close above.
As of 2:49pm after fed talk, we shot up then back down. Only the close matters. Watching the prior high and Fridays close.
We have support at 91.89/91/90.51 area and are really just consolidating since April.
Resistance: 94.75 bull, went above but did not close above it.
Support: Watching 91.82 bearish, and 92.00 prior low. If we stay on top of this area, then market has probability of holding for the daily trend time frame.
Middle between support and resistance. 21.97 and 31 area. Yet all time frames appear bullish at this time. A strong stock probability longer term.
Middle ground between bull/bear area. 29.98 61.8% Fibo bottom. Recently positive on dip down. Still in uptrend channel towards bottom, but perfect location of entry above 27.90/27.18 if ever possible.
Still above highs from April reaction down(-15% 7d) from energy used in rally (32% 18d) June 10. Currently up for 2 days.
Looks to be closing above important number today for daily trend. High probability upward tomorrow. About a 4% rally probability tomorrow. But have weekly overhead resistance so will be cautious.
High probability of rally tomorrow on daily trend with close above 14.15. It jumped above 14.15 at 3.57pm right before the close. Which is also giving some possible rally to XME with this close. This is for the daily trend as we are still waiting the close on Friday. But possible probabilities of 5% rally to 14.60 and 14.90 if we are lucky… we will see on timing.
76.51 area is showing weekly support and basing. Watching Friday 76.51 to see if we bounce or close below. But low risk appears here for weekly rally or dip. Also monthly support is in this area… so giving us some good support.
Watch The Currency Gives Hints To The Fed
Today showed GBP and EURO verse the USD all gaining since early morning trading before the Fed announcement. This gives early insight what the market is perceiving possibly before the fed announcement.
Since any raising of rates would make the dollar more higher in value, a no rate raise would give the opposite which we saw a weakening dollar. So a good trade hitting bottom for the GBP and EURO. We would need to see how long the rally lasts as the probability of the Dollar is looked up the only trade in town for the world right now, even though so many are saying the dollar is collapsing.
It is always the opposite of the majority. But this we will see into 2020 January and play out possibly by 2024 based on seasonal cycles. This is what will cause serious problems around the world. A higher dollar….