Note: This is a notation of data from the markets, by no means is this any type of financial advice. I like just chatting about markets and do not give any financial suggestions or advice. I’m just a guy who likes the markets.
Outlook To End of Month At The Core Markets:
VIX – Bearish
This is showing signs that traders are placing PUTS (shorts) on S&P500 and are paying a higher price to get in. This is data that gives probabilities of traders expectations into 30 to 90 days.
SPY (S&P500 ETF, Domestic Investors) – Bearish
We closed weekly below 284 level, which is an important number that may signal a bearish run next week. This may gap down 2.5% to 277 area within next week.
Note: SPY looks to have some energy and has small probability to rally into next week open to re-touch 284-283 level, but weekly trend looks to be down for few days for now. This is normal market patterns as traders will be adding positions.
DIA (Dow Jones ETF, Intl investors) – Neutral
While short term daily appears to be bearish (this is noise). We are watching weekly moves until the end of the month close. We have not closed below any negative numbers in DIA for now. Keep eyes on 253 – 251 level for support on weekly closing.
Dollar Weakens, Assets Can Go Higher (until massive capital flows begin): We see EURO and GBP go up against dollar. GBP was over sold and bouncing short term was nice trade into next week. Also PM May stepping down… gave pound boost. The long term outlook appears to be bearish for EURO and GBP, but it appears to be building strength due to overselling. 2020 Jan is more prime time for a big move in EURO.
By EURO/GBP going up, this could mean capital going back into currency INTL, so lower dow may happen short term. But once these intl traders get the currency up against the dollar, you better believe they will be re-entering the dollar and/or dow as a currency play as they will get more value that way.
QQQ (NasDaq, Retail) – Bearish
We closed below 180 area for the week, The probability appears to be heading lower next week. Probability of some support around 176, but target may be 170 for 5% gap down.
Note: Probability of short rally to re-touch 180-179 area on open then trend down for week.
XME (Miners & Metal ETF) – Bearish
The probability is really bearish, yet it’s like the EURO and GBP… it’s bearish but we could have a rally up before the trend continues due to overselling.
We closed below important area of 25.60 area… probability target to 25.05 of 2% dip for next week. End of month is what you want to watch… some would see this as short opportunity if elects specific numbers.
End of Month watching to see if can get below 25.40/23.95 area for 16% gap to 20, then 22% Gap to 15 area. Needs a lot of energy to move it, so lets see what the market does.
Outlook To End of Month At The Individual Markets:
Since we have S&P, NASDAQ getting a little bearish. We need to expect some weakness for stocks in those categories. Long term we are bullish, but moving into 2020 we are just consolidating on markets, yet consolidating very high and very low.
COP (Conoco Phillips) – Expect bounce, but bearish
We did not close bearish weekly numbers (58.80 area). And close above the daily bearish numbers(59.44 area). So expect bounce into next week, but we need to be ward the NasDaq elected weekly bearish numbers, so this may affect this stock.
The numbers to watch for support on Friday Closing:
- 56.74 (close end of week below this probable to go to 53.73).
End of month support is down to 50.17 area, not saying it will touch it just watch the weekly numbers to see if you get support.
You may get early next week bounce, but be cautious on any weekly closing below 56.74.
PM (Phillip Morris) – Neutral and Held
Neutral currently, yet we need to aware of the indexes (S&P and NASDAQ) showing weakness this week into next.
Your important support (which was held for the week), is 82.82 area. This is also your monthly support.
For positive look, if we get above 87.80 area, this is quarterly important, daily, and weekly. This would increase the probability of move upward.
The market probability is bullish longer term due to numerous factors around the world. You even have Deutsch Bank having issues, which will cause a lot of volatility as big money will have to see assets to cover other assets.
We see weakness weekly in S&P and NasDaq. Yet, there is a high probability of consolidating into 2020 for US Markets January cyclically before making moves higher and taking off which many may not be able to catch.
So Bullish Long Term, yet be aware we have weakness probability moving into next week for S&P and NasDaq. Dow did not show weakness weekly, only on daily. So we have to be neutral.